Written by Melissa Grimshaw
What Have I learned this Year?
I have learned that I am capable.
Predictions for 2024
I predict that it is hard to predict the unpredictable. However, the things that I can predict are:
- I am Hudson’s newest Financial Adviser (on track for completion of my professional Year June 2024), with 26 years’ experience to date in the financial planning industry.
- Continue to see me developing the education series.
- See Hudson embrace and grow into the digital age, reaching out to more and more people providing them with good financial advice as we have done in the past.
My predictions of the financial world. The current global issue that central banks are still combating is inflation. Australia is no different. This will continue to be the theme over 2024.
The target for Reserve bank of Australian (RBA) for inflation is between 2-3 %. Inflation hits its peak December 2022 at 7.8%. Interest rates rises are working with inflation now sitting at 5.4% end of the September quarter 2023. This is good news, as each quarter inflation has been falling, though we still have a way to go to settle back into the desired 2-3% range that the RBA wants to see. To keep inflation under control the Australian Government has three levers in which to use. These include:
- Interest rates;
- Reducing government spending
- Raise taxes.
Predict that inflation may continue to fall slowly and reach 4% by end of 2024.
For this to occur, there is likely to see at least two more rate rises throughout 2024, ending with a cash rate of 4.85%. I don’t see rate reductions occurring over 2024.
Property prices are still rising, and we are entering the second phase of FOMO right now (Fear of Missing out), particularly in Brisbane. Supply and demand are out of sync, where there is more demand than supply, and when a property does come online, it generally is snaped quickly in Brisbane (if worth snapping), other capital cities are little longer than previously. Property prices are likely to continue to rise while demand is high, and supply is low. This is only going to be fuelled with migration.
The impact on Markets. Markets are forward looking and do factor in likely changes in the economy, inflation, and interest rates, company profits, consumer sentiment for example. The only thing that can shake markets is a shock, like a war for example.
In saying this I think that we will likely be in for another year of volatility and patience is required. Like all cycles, there will be pockets within the market that will do well.
Final Word for 2023
A big thank you to all those clients of Hudson that have allowed me share in your financial journey over the course of 2023 as part of my professional year with Ivan. I have thoroughly enjoyed speaking with you all.
Wishing everyone a lovely and safe Christmas, wherever you will be and with whom.